Russia's Economy Becoming More Primitive: Economist Targeted by Moscow

Russia's economy is becoming increasingly primitive as its war in Ukraine drags on, and the repercussions could push it down the same path the Soviet Union endured three decades ago, according to the Russian economist and University of Chicago professor Konstantin Sonin.

Sonin, who Moscow targeted with a criminal case in last month, told Russian news outlet Novaya Gazeta Sunday that the West's sanctions so far have had "no influence" on the Russia economy. He said it's instead been Vladimir Putin's war efforts that have dragged on growth and fueled turmoil.

"Sanctions are a consequence of Russian planes bombing Ukrainian cities, Russian tanks crawling along Ukrainian roads, and Russian soldiers killing Ukrainians," he said. "Therefore, talking about the influence of sanctions is like talking about the influence of fever on illness."

The US has led Europe and other nations in imposing various sanctions on Russia and Russian individuals over the last year, including bans on oil and fuel purchases, as well as price cap mechanisms. 

The academic explained that the country's GDP has contracted 3%, instead of expanding 4% as anticipated. And with consumption and retail activity plunging, citizens have suffered even more than what's been reflected in GDP.

"Everything that is happening makes the Russian economy more primitive, more backwards," Konstantin said. "This makes backwardness and primitivism more persistent. And I think we are seriously going to follow the Soviet Union's path from the 1970s to the complete economic implosion of the late 1980s."

The collapse has already started, in his view. The Kremlin posted a $29 billion deficit in the first quarter, new data showed, as energy revenue continued to decline.

While Russia's coming demise may not be as dramatic in scale as the Soviet Union's fall, since certain parameters exist now that weren't present decades earlier, the economic drag will be severe, Konstantin said.  

"[T]he stagnation can reach the level that will cause the full collapse of the state government machine, as it happened in the 1990s."